Understanding the Nuclear Threat

Nuclear threat

For decades, the possession of nuclear weapons by any nation was considered a self-defeating risk. The fear that an enemy attack would trigger a counter-strike that would destroy the infrastructure and large proportions of the population of both countries led to the development of the doctrine of mutually assured destruction. This was the foundation of deterrence: a nuclear exchange was unwinnable and both sides would emerge from any confrontation with only pyrrhic victories.

However, the nuclear weapons arsenals of both the United States and the Soviet Union grew so large that many western game theorists began to believe that the two superpowers were able to destroy each other’s society and military assets. This created a situation in which the possibility of a catastrophic nuclear war prevented any direct conflict between the two states, and both sides settled instead for low-intensity proxy conflicts.

Currently, nations that possess nuclear weapons operate within a framework called the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty and the Non-Proliferation Treaty. These agreements require them to maintain and modernize their nuclear arms, to limit the spread of weapons and technology that could lead to their acquisition by other countries, and to cooperate on missile defense and civil defense.

In addition to proliferation-related agreements, the United States and its allies work in a number of multilateral initiatives and partnerships to minimize the threat of nuclear terrorism. This includes collaboration on nuclear detection, interdiction, device defeat, consequence management, and nuclear forensics.