Arms embargos can only make an effective contribution to ending and resolving armed conflicts if they are adapted to the situation on the ground and in the political framework conditions, if there are credible consequences for repeated violations and if they are better linked to peace processes in the affected region. The overarching challenges for arms embargos include smuggling, the problem of exceptions and exemptions for government forces – which is often driven by concern that weapons might be diverted from official stocks – and a soaring demand for sophisticated technologies that can be used to make weapons and ammunition more lethal.
The smuggling of military equipment is difficult to stop, especially when it comes to small-arms and light weapons (SALW). Import dependence is an important predictor of violation, as embargoed actors seek to standardize their weapon systems, building strategies and training programs around particular combinations of firearms. This creates a lock-in effect that makes it harder to find alternative suppliers. The asymmetry of power is also exploited by states, who may offer embargoed actors much-needed arms in exchange for various concessions.
Unlike other types of sanctions, arms embargoes are mainly designed not to impose economic damage but to signal disapproval and limit the availability of specific arms. However, it is often difficult to demonstrate that such effects exist. In addition, the proliferation of online platforms for trading dual-use goods – e.g. 3D printers – has made it harder to detect illicit arms shipments.
