Rebel forces are groups that engage in armed conflict in opposition to an established government in order to seek political change. They may be aiming to capture the central government (center aims) or they may want to retain autonomy in their region of a country such as Syria (peripheral aims). They can be financed and armed by domestic or foreign backers. In some cases, rebels are covertly supported by the United States or France while in others they are designated as “foreign terrorist organizations” which can reduce their funding or stop it altogether.
Throughout history, countless rebellions have challenged empires and redrew national borders. They have inspired both hope and fear. The legacies of these rebel movements are profound, yet they are often difficult to understand. This article presents new research on the formation and dynamics of rebel groups. It argues that in weak state contexts, rebel groups often start small and poor – and therefore are highly vulnerable to defeat. They also tend to emerge in ethnically homogenous localities, where kinship networks facilitate civilians’ susceptibility to rebel rumors and early attacks.
The rapid battlefield successes of HTS in the south of Syria, coupled with a growing capacity for indigenous rocket and missile production, has created a force that Assad’s regime will find hard to defend against or outmaneuver. However, the success of this rebel group could also set off a conflict of interests between Turkey, which has been supporting HTS, and Russia and Iran, who have been supporting Assad.
